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2028 Global Intelligence Crisis report by Citrini: What does viral report say about jobs, India? Who is James van Geelen, Alap Shah? The scenario, not a prediction, explained
The report is a thematic thought experiment exploring a scenario where the rapid success of AI leads to systemic economic instability by June 2028. (AI generated for representation)
Citrini Research has published a provocative macro-analysis titled ‘The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis’, which has triggered a significant ‘AI scare trade’ across global markets.
The report is a thematic thought experiment exploring a scenario where the rapid success of artificial intelligence (AI) leads to systemic economic instability by June 2028.
The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: Key insights
The report, co-authored by James van Geelen and Alap Shah, outlines several critical risks:
Ghost GDP: A phenomenon where AI boosts productivity and corporate profits (inflating nominal GDP), while actual household income and wage growth collapse due to mass white-collar displacement.
Intelligence Displacement Spiral: A negative feedback loop where companies cut payroll costs through automation, leading to weakened consumer spending, which then forces further corporate cost-cutting and AI reinvestment.
Death of SaaS: The report predicts that AI agents will allow companies to replicate core software functionalities in-house, undermining the pricing power and recurring revenue models of traditional Software-as-a-Service firms.
Market Impact: The scenario models a potential 38% drawdown in the S&P 500 from October 2026 highs and a 10.2% unemployment rate by 2028.
Sector-specific risks and winners
The report identifies specific industries and regions that face high exposure to this disruption:
Indian IT Services: Predicts a “structural obit” for the sector, with firms like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro facing massive contract cancellations as the cost of AI coding agents collapses to “the cost of electricity”.
Financial Intermediaries: Traditional payment processors like Visa and Mastercard are seen as vulnerable as AI agents bypass traditional interchange fees using lower-cost rails like stablecoins.
Regional Beneficiaries: In contrast to US software gloom, Asia (specifically Korea and Taiwan) is seen as a winner due to its concentration of “picks and shovels” hardware providers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC.
The future of jobs
“AI has created new jobs. Prompt engineers. AI safety researchers. Infrastructure technicians. Humans are still in the loop, coordinating at the highest level or directing for taste. For every new role AI created, though, it rendered dozens obsolete. The new roles paid a fraction of what the old ones did,” the study says about the near future job market.
What does the report say about India?
In the first quarter of 2028, New Delhi will begin ‘preliminary discussions’ with the International Monetary Fund.
The report further says that the Indian IT sector was largely built on the premise of cost-effectiveness. But with artificial intelligence disrupting the coding business, the dependence on the Indian tech sector will shrink. “But the marginal cost of an AI coding agent had collapsed to, essentially, the cost of electricity. TCS, Infosys and Wipro saw contract cancellations accelerate through 2027,” the Citrini Research writes in the viral study. The report also adds that in next two years, the rupee will depreciate further. “The rupee fell 18% against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India’s external accounts evaporated.”
‘Just a scenario, not a prediction’: What is Citrini? Who is James van Geelen and Alap Shah?
As per a report by the Wall Street Journal, Citrini is a small research group that was founded just three years ago in 2023.
Its founder has been identified as James van Geelen, who started writing stock research papers after selling his healthcare company. Geelen is known to be a writer on weight loss medicines and AI.
The latest viral report was also co-authored by Alap Shah, who is the chief investment officer of Littlebird at Lotus Technology Management in New York(since September 2024). He has worked as the Managing Partner at Lotus Technology Management in Florida, and Co-Founder & Chairman of Thistle in the San Francisco Bay Area. He previously co-founded Sentieo, an AI-powered financial search platform later acquired by AlphaSense, serving as CEO from December 2011 to September 2020 and as Chairman from September 2020 to May 2022. He did his graduation in Economics from Harvard University, according to his LinkedIn profile.
The report has categorically said that it is not a prediction of what will happen in the future but a case study of all the scenarios that may unfold if the current AI rollout continues. “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored,” the report says.
How have the markets reacted?
IBM experienced its worst trading day in 25 years following the report’s release.
Indian IT stocks saw heavy sell-offs, and the Indian Rupee faced pressure in global markets.
Co-author Alap Shah clarified that his firm holds short positions against disrupted sectors while owning “a lot” of semiconductor stocks poised to benefit
February 24, 2026, 13:03 IST
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